Thursday, January 26, 2012

Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc

 

1 The fool says in his heart,
   “There is no God.”
   They are corrupt, and their ways are vile;
   there is no one who does good.

2 God looks down from heaven
   on the sons of men
    to see if there are any who understand,
   any who seek God.
3 Everyone has turned away,
   they have together become corrupt;
   there is no one who does good,
   not even one.

4 Will the evildoers never learn—
   those who devour my people as men eat bread
   and who do not call on God?
5 There they were, overwhelmed with dread,
   where there was nothing to dread.
   God scattered the bones of those who attacked you;
   you put them to shame, for God despised them.

6 Oh, that salvation for Israel would come out of Zion!
   When God restores the fortunes of his people,
   let Jacob rejoice and Israel be glad!

—The words of King David from Psalm 53:1-6

 

“After this, therefore because of this.”

I thought I had better hasten to explain the title to this blog. If you’ve ever had the privilege of studying “logic” as an academic subject—of if you have a strong dose of common sense—you will well remember this principle. Perhaps this video clip from one of my favorite television shows, The West Wing, can help illustrate the meaning of this Latin phrase:

Please click here to watch the video.

In short, “Something that happens after something else happens must have occurred as a result of whatever happened first.”

A good example:

Thomas, a truck driver, loads his truck with pumpkins to deliver to four supermarkets. On the way to the first supermarket, a car speeding through a stop sign t-bones his truck. Therefore, the load of pumpkins must have caused the accident.

Sort of silly. Right?

But people make this error in logic every day. Just because, in a chain of events, one event precedes another does not necessarily mean that preceding event caused the subsequent event. Here’s another more potent example from the business world:

A Board of Directors dismisses the Vice President of Marketing because the President doesn’t like her. The VP does her job well. Many of the shareholders, fellow workers, and customers like the VP very much. She has contributed significantly to the unique market share that the company enjoys. But, the President doesn’t like her.

(Of course, the President can’t simply say, “I don’t like the Vice President of Marketing. So, you’ll have to fire her.” The President can’t say that because that would seem silly. Any genuine leader should have the capacity to find a way to get along with any person serving under the President’s leadership. Just because the President doesn’t like something about the Vice President of Marketing, doesn’t give the President the right to ask the Board of Directors to terminate the VP’s employment. The key thing for the VP to retain her employment should always rest solely with a very careful assessment of the VP’s performance. If the VP performs her job well, then whether or not the President likes her, the VP should not lose her job.)

Because dismissal from a position—when a person adequately performs his or her job—seems unreasonable and illogical, once the President and the Board of Directors have to explain to the shareholders why they have taken this action, they will have to “logically” formulate an acceptable reason. Thus a search for an explanation begins. When the Board and President finally set forth an explanation, those receiving the explanation should make a careful examination using the principle of post hoc, ergo propter hoc. Application of this principle will always disclose a lie.

“She got along with some people, but not with all,” the Board reports.

The shareholders counter, “But she did her job well. She increased market share. Many staff members, clients, and shareholders like her.”

And, so forth. The application of logic, especially post hoc, ergo propter hoc will force the explanation to return to the truth.

In the Scripture passage at the beginning of this blog post, King David seems stricken by the reality of people turning their backs on God. David expresses a longing. He emotes a strong sense of hope. Perhaps God will examine the sons of men to see if any understand. In desperation, David asks, “Will the evildoers ever learn?”

It seems to me that David seeks a strong dose of post hoc, ergo propter hoc. Using this principle of logic, David will begin to examine the events to see if anyone has placed blame on a previous event that, in fact, does not constitute the real cause of the current distress. A logical examination—using the knowledge that God has already given him—will lead David to a conclusion.

And, in fact, David apprehends precisely the right answer: “Oh that salvation for Israel would come out of Zion.” For God will send His Son, Jesus, to inhabit human form, to bear the sins of all mankind on the cross of torture and death, and to rise from the dead to declare victory over sin and death.

As the Apostle Paul declares in 1 Corinthians 15:54-58:

54 When the perishable has been clothed with the imperishable, and the mortal with immortality, then the saying that is written will come true: “Death has been swallowed up in victory.”

55 “Where, O death, is your victory?
    Where, O death, is your sting?”

56 The sting of death is sin, and the power of sin is the law. 57 But thanks be to God! He gives us the victory through our Lord Jesus Christ.

58 Therefore, my dear brothers, stand firm. Let nothing move you. Always give yourselves fully to the work of the Lord, because you know that your labor in the Lord is not in vain.

When faced with any explanation about an event that seems strange to you, make certain you apply the principle of post hoc, ergo propter hoc to make certain the answer passes the test of logic. If it does not, dig deeper to find the truth.

Will you pray with me?

Thank You, God, for loving us. Thank You for sending Jesus to be our Savior. Thank You for sending us Your Holy Spirit to dwell within us.

We ask You to remind us often that we need to rely on You to reveal the truth to us. We know that we can rely on the truth of Your Word. We know that we can rely on Your Holy Spirit to guide us into all truth.

By the indwelling power of the Holy Spirit, we ask You to help us seek Your logic in answering every question, in examining every activity, in disclosing every truth.

Thank You, dear Father, for Your ever-faithful hand on our lives. And, thank You for hearing our prayer in and through the precious Name of Your Son, our Savior, the Lord Jesus Christ. Amen.

Copyright © 2012 by Dean K. Wilson. All Rights Reserved.

 

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